Preston Brown vs Arjun Mehrotra

Highlights

• • Market implies a coin flip (1.86 each) despite both players having weak recent records
• • Value would require about 3.333 decimal or longer on the favored player given our probability estimate

Pros

• + Preston has a larger match sample and a better raw win record than Arjun
• + If odds drift dramatically longer (≥3.333) there would be clear value on Preston

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent results and limited top-level data; outcomes are high variance
• - No surface/venue confirmation or injury/H2H detail in the provided research, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compared the quoted moneyline (1.86 each, implying ~53.8% market chance) to player form and career win rates from the provided profiles. Preston Brown has a larger sample and a better raw career win rate (9/39 ≈ 23%) than Arjun Mehrotra (1/7 ≈ 14%), but neither player shows recent results or a level of dominance that would justify believing either has >53.8% true win probability. Given limited matches, mixed surfaces, no injury information, and Preston's estimated true win probability (~30%), the current decimal price (1.86) is too short to offer positive expected value. We therefore recommend no bet — value would only appear if the market offered substantially longer odds (see min_required_decimal_odds).

Key factors

• • Preston Brown has a larger sample size and higher career win rate than Arjun Mehrotra
• • Both players show poor recent records; neither demonstrates dominance that justifies market-implied 53.8% probability
• • Surface and venue are unknown and there is no injury/H2H data in the provided research, increasing uncertainty