Highlights

• • Implied probability for Nugroho (1.262) = ~79.2%
• • Our estimated true probability = 52%, implying fair odds ~1.923

Pros

• + Market respects Nugroho as a clear favorite, so match is likely to produce a favorite win (but overpriced)
• + Data show both players have experience on the listed surfaces

Cons

• - Research shows very similar records and form for both players, offering no clear edge
• - Current favorite price is far too short to offer positive expected value

Details

The market prices Priska Madelyn Nugroho at 1.262 (implied ~79.2%). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar limited recent form on hard/clay, with no clear H2H or injury information to justify such a large gap. Given parity in records, surfaces played and recent results, we estimate Nugroho's true win probability at 52%. At that probability the fair odds would be ~1.923, so the current price of 1.262 offers no value (expected ROI negative). Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form
• • No clear H2H, injury or surface advantage in the supplied research
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (79.2%) is far above our estimate (~52%)