Highlights

• • Market implies Evan Zhu ~71.1% win chance; we estimate ~68%
• • At 1.407 (Zhu) EV ≈ -0.043; at 2.85 (Qian) EV is also negative under our estimate

Pros

• + Evan Zhu: better match experience and grass exposure supports the market favourite tag
• + Qian Sun: higher odds (2.85) mean a sizable payout if he performs above his recent standard

Cons

• - Neither side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices
• - Small sample and mixed recent form increase outcome variance and model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Away Evan Zhu 1.407, Home Qian Sun 2.85) to our own win-probability estimates using the provided player profiles and surface information. Evan Zhu is the clear favorite in the market (implied ~71.1%) which aligns with his larger match sample (31-25) and experience on grass; Qian Sun has a much smaller sample (9-14) and weaker recent form. We estimate Zhu's true win chance slightly below the market-implied probability due to some recent losses and variability in form, so at the available price (1.407) there is no positive expected value. Conversely, Qian Sun's price (2.85) understates his chances relative to Zhu but still does not reach a level where the EV is positive given our conservative probability for him. The market also contains a modest vigorish (implied probabilities sum >100%), further eroding value.

Key factors

• • Evan Zhu has substantially more matches and a stronger overall record (31-25) and has grass experience
• • Qian Sun has a limited sample and poorer recent results (9-14), making him the less likely winner on grass
• • Market-implied probability for Zhu (≈71.1%) is slightly higher than our estimate (68%), leaving no positive EV
• • Market vig (implied probabilities sum >100%) reduces available value further