Highlights

• • Home underdog (3.10) requires only ~32.26% true chance to be +EV; we estimate 35%
• • No injury flags and both have grass experience in provided profiles

Pros

• + Price offers cushion vs our conservative probability estimate
• + Quinn's career win-rate is above the break-even threshold implied by the price

Cons

• - Trotter's superior overall record and recent higher-level matches reduce upset likelihood
• - Limited matchup-specific data (no H2H or detailed grass splits) increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment of true win chances. The book gives James Trotter an implied probability of ~72.4% (1.382) and Quinn Vandecasteele ~32.3% (3.10). Based on the provided profiles, Quinn has a career win rate (~40.8%) and grass experience, while Trotter has the stronger overall record (36-26) and recent higher-level matches. There are no injury notes in the research. We conservatively estimate Quinn's true win probability at 35.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 32.3% for the 3.10 price; this produces positive expected value. We used the home price of 3.10 for the EV calculation and accounted for the market vig (sum of implied probabilities >100%). Given limited additional context (no H2H or detailed grass-specific splits), our view is cautious but identifies a small value edge on the home underdog.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Quinn (32.3%) vs our estimate (35.0%)
• • Quinn has a non-negligible career win rate and grass experience
• • Trotter is the stronger overall player on paper but not priced to allow Quinn value