Highlights

• • Andrew's career win rate (~58%) materially exceeds Quinn's (~41%).
• • Current away price (2.08) implies ~48% while our model estimates ~56%.

Pros

• + Clear gap in career win-rate and recent hard-court results in Andrew's favor.
• + Available price (2.08) is comfortably above our minimum fair odds (≈1.786).

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited direct comparison / H2H increase uncertainty.
• - Possible unobserved factors (injury/status on match day) not present in the provided research.

Details

We see clear edge metrics favoring Andrew Fenty despite the market pricing Quinn Vandecasteele as the favorite at 1.70. Andrew's career win rate (35-25, ~58%) and steadier recent results on hard courts imply a materially higher true win probability than implied by the away price of 2.08 (implied probability 48.1%). Conservatively adjusting for sample-size noise and level differences, we estimate Andrew's true win probability at 56%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.79; the available 2.08 offers positive expected value. Key uncertainties are limited head-to-head data and small career sample sizes, but the current line appears to overvalue the home underdog.

Key factors

• • Andrew Fenty has a higher career win-rate (35-25) versus Quinn (20-29), implying superior baseline strength
• • Both players have experience on hard courts, but Andrew's recent form and match wins on hard tilt probability toward him
• • Market prices favor the home player despite statistical indicators that the away price (2.08) undervalues Andrew