Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite: ~76.9%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate: 75% → fair odds 1.333, so 1.30 is not value

Pros

• + Avoids taking a small negative-expected-value wager based on limited data
• + Conservative approach accounts for lack of opponent/injury information

Cons

• - If our probability estimate is overly conservative, a small positive edge could be missed
• - Limited data increases uncertainty; a sharper market or additional info could change the verdict

Details

The away player is priced at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%). From the available profile, Quinn Vandecasteele has a 20-29 career record with limited recent wins on hard courts and mixed form; there is no corroborating information that suggests a materially higher chance for the underdog. Given the sparse data on James Kent Trotter in the research, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the favorite (away) at 75%. At that probability the fair decimal odds are 1.333; the current market price of 1.30 is inferior to the fair price and yields a negative expected value, so we do not find value and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Quinn Vandecasteele has an overall losing record (20-29) and limited recent success on hard courts
• • Bookmaker market strongly favors the away player (1.30), implying ~76.9% — we conservatively estimate slightly lower (75%)
• • Research lacks opponent-specific details and injury information, increasing model uncertainty