Highlights

• • Away implied probability 71.4% at 1.40 — market is strongly favoring them
• • Research contains only surface info (outdoor hard) and lacks form/injury/H2H details

Pros

• + Market price for the away side is widely available and indicates a clear favorite
• + Home side is offered at a long underdog price (2.85) so a genuine upset would produce value

Cons

• - Insufficient Research evidence to justify deviating from the market probabilities
• - Estimated true probability for the favorite (0.68) produces negative EV at 1.40

Details

We compared the market prices to what can be supported given the available Research. The away pair is a clear market favorite at decimal 1.40 (implied ~71.4%). The only concrete match data provided is surface: outdoor hard, and there is no additional information about form, injuries, or recent H2H in the Research to justify assigning a materially higher win probability than the market. We therefore estimate the away side's true win probability below the market-implied level, producing a negative expected value at the quoted 1.40 price. The underdog home price (2.85) implies ~35% win probability; without supporting evidence that the home team is substantially undervalued on this surface or has mitigating factors versus the favorites, we cannot identify profitable value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away at 1.40 (~71.4%)
• • Surface: outdoor hard (neutral — no directional edge in Research)
• • No additional form, injury, or H2H data in provided Research to justify an alternative probability