Highlights

• • Home implied probability (62.1%) undercuts our 66% estimate
• • Positive EV (+6.3%) at current market price

Pros

• + Price offers a measurable edge versus our conservative probability
• + Simple, direct moneyline play with limited lines to parse

Cons

• - No surface/form/injury/H2H data available — increases model uncertainty
• - Doubles matches can be high-variance; margin of value is modest

Details

We compare the book price (home 1.61, implied ~62.1%) to our conservative assessment and find value on the home side. With no external match-specific intel returned, we apply a conservative uplift to the listed home team (home-court designation, usual slight edge for listed host/team order, and typical market rounding) and estimate their win probability at 66%. That gives positive expected value: EV = 0.66 * 1.61 - 1 = +0.063 (6.3% ROI). We remain cautious because we lack surface, form, injury, and H2H details, so we assign a medium risk rating despite the calculated value.

Key factors

• • book-implied probability (1/1.61 ≈ 62.1%) vs our conservative estimate (66%)
• • home/listed-team edge and market rounding create a small exploitable gap
• • lack of specific surface/form/injury data increases uncertainty