Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 28.6% vs our 30.0% estimate
• • Projected ROI on stake: +0.05 (5%) at current home price 3.50

Pros

• + Small positive expected value at widely-available odds (3.50)
• + Doubles volatility and low-tier events can produce underdog wins more often than markets expect

Cons

• - Edge is small (+5% ROI) and sensitive to estimation error
• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) — higher model risk

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 3.50 => implied 28.57%, Away 1.27 => implied 78.74%) to a conservative, information-sparse estimate. With no external match data, we assume a moderately higher chance for the home pairing than the market assigns because doubles matches at lower-tier events have greater variance and favorites are often over-priced by bookmakers in short-priced markets. We estimate the home team R. Dernikovic/K. Vaja has a 30.0% chance to win. At decimal 3.50 this produces a small positive edge (EV = 0.30 * 3.50 - 1 = +0.05). The away price of 1.27 requires a true win probability >78.74% to be fair; our estimate for the away team is ~70%, so the favorite is overpriced for us and we prefer the home underdog at current quotes. Given the lack of external form/injury/H2H data, this is a cautious value play with a small margin and material uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home win probability (28.57%) is slightly below our conservative estimate (30%)
• • Doubles and lower-tier matches exhibit higher variance, supporting a higher underdog likelihood
• • No external match-specific data available — our estimate is intentionally conservative