R. Hijikata/J. Thompson vs S. Gille/J. Vliegen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the away side at 2.65 because Thompson's weak form suggests the market overestimates the home team's chances; the price offers a ~27% ROI on our probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.43) ~69.9% vs our home estimate ~52% (implying away ~48%)
- • Minimum fair odds for our estimate: 2.083 — current 2.65 offers positive expected value
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current quoted price (EV ~0.272 per unit)
- + Market seems to overweight home side given documented poor form for Thompson
Cons
- - Research dataset is incomplete (no direct info on Hijikata or opponents), increasing model uncertainty
- - Doubles matchups can hinge on team chemistry and specialist status not captured in the provided data
Details
The market prices the home side at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%) which appears inflated given the limited research: J. Thompson shows poor recent results (10-21 record, multiple recent losses on hard) which reduces confidence in the home pairing's chances. We estimate the true match probability for S. Gille/J. Vliegen at 48.0% (0.48). At the offered decimal 2.65 this produces a positive edge (EV = 0.48 * 2.65 - 1 = 0.272). The minimum fair decimal odds for this estimated probability is 1 / 0.48 = 2.083, so the current 2.65 is above that threshold and represents value. We note high uncertainty because the research contains only Thompson's profile and lacks full data on Hijikata and the opponents, so our probability includes a margin for that unknown information.
Key factors
- • J. Thompson's documented poor recent form and overall losing record
- • Market-implied probability (home 69.9%) appears overstated relative to available player data
- • Limited research on Hijikata and opponents increases uncertainty and warrants a conservative probability adjustment