R. Ho/J. Jung vs N. Budkov Kjaer/V. Durasovic

Highlights

• • Market favors home at 1.55 (implied 64.5%), but our conservative estimate is lower (62%).
• • EV at current home price is about -3.9% — not sufficient to recommend a wager.

Pros

• + Home is favored by the market, suggesting baseline strength.
• + Odds are widely available and liquid at quoted prices.

Cons

• - No match-specific information to justify a meaningful divergence from market implied probabilities.
• - Current prices imply negative EV under conservative estimates (small but real downside).

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 1.55, Away 2.32) to a conservative estimate of the true win probability for the home pair. The market-implied probability for the home side is 1/1.55 = 64.5%, while the away side's implied probability is 1/2.32 = 43.1% (note the market overround ~7.6%). Given no match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H), we apply a conservative adjustment and estimate the home pair's true win probability at 62.0%. At the available home price of 1.55 this yields EV = 0.62 * 1.55 - 1 = -0.039 (≈ -3.9% ROI), which is negative and therefore not value. To consider the away side at 2.32 would require a higher true probability than we can justify without additional information. Because neither side shows positive expected value under our conservative probability estimate, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability 64.5% (1.55) vs our conservative estimate 62.0%
• • No match-specific data available (surface, form, injuries, H2H) — forces conservative assumptions
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.6%) reduces apparent value in available prices