R. Nijboer/D. Rincon vs T. Compagnucci/A. Picchione

Highlights

• • Home implied probability from odds: ~67.6%; our conservative estimate: 62%
• • EV at current home price (1.48): roughly -8.2% ROI

Pros

• + Market shows a clear favorite, so heavy favorite status is consistent
• + If additional positive information (injury to opponents, strong recent form) appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.48) is too short relative to our conservative probability estimate
• - No available data on surface, form, or H2H to justify moving our probability higher

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data, so we apply a conservative assessment. The market prices make the home pair R. Nijboer/D. Rincon the clear favorite at 1.48 (implied ~67.6%). Given the lack of confirmatory data, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 62% (0.62). At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.613, so the current 1.48 offers negative expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.62 * 1.48 - 1 = -0.0824 (≈ -8.2% ROI). The away price (2.5) would require an estimated win probability ≥ 0.4 to be fair; we conservatively estimate the away pair at ~0.38, which also yields negative EV at the posted price. Because neither side shows positive expected value given our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available — we apply conservative baseline probability
• • Market strongly favors home at 1.48 (implied ~67.6%), which exceeds our conservative estimate
• • Book margin and uncertainty make current prices unattractive for value betting