R. Augusto Dos Santos/P. Saraiva Dos Santos vs Boscardin Dias, P/Ribeiro Marcondes, I

Highlights

• • Market favorite 1.25 implies ~80% probability, we conservatively estimate 75%
• • At our estimate the fair price is ~1.333; current 1.25 produces negative EV (-0.0625)

Pros

• + Avoids wagering when market price offers negative expected value
• + Conservative approach reduces risk from missing contextual information

Cons

• - If hidden information (injury, poor form) would justify a lower true probability, we might miss a contrarian value opportunity
• - No stake recommendation may miss small edges if our conservative estimates are overly cautious

Details

We have no external form, surface, or injury data available and only the market moneyline to work with. The market strongly favors the away pairing at 1.25 (implied ~80% win probability). With no corroborating information, we apply a conservative shrinkage to the market implied probability to account for bookmaker margin and unknowns, estimating the away pair's true win probability at 75%. At that estimate the required fair decimal price is ~1.333; the current market price of 1.25 is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = -0.0625 for a 1-unit stake). Given the lack of independent data and the favorite price already factoring a large probability, there is no value at the quoted odds and we therefore do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H available
• • Market strongly favors the away pairing at 1.25 (high implied probability)
• • Conservative shrinkage reduces implied market edge; current odds are below fair value threshold