R. Hijikata/J. Peers vs S. Gille/J. Vliegen

Highlights

• • Market implies home is favorite (1.61, ~62.1%); our conservative estimate is 60.0%
• • Required decimal odds for a profitable home bet at our estimate is ≥1.667; current 1.61 is short

Pros

• + Home pair likely favored by bookmakers and thus shorter priced
• + If additional positive info (surface advantage, recent strong form) emerges, value could appear

Cons

• - Current market price (1.61) is worse than our minimum required (1.667) for the home team
• - No external data on surface, form, H2H, or injuries — increases model uncertainty

Details

We made a conservative estimate of the match based on the pairing names and the provided market prices only. The market prices imply a ~62.1% chance for the home side (1.61) and ~45.5% for the away (2.20) after converting decimals to implied probabilities. Accounting for an assumed bookmaker margin and uncertainty around surface, recent form, pairing chemistry and injuries (no data provided), we estimate a true win probability for R. Hijikata/J. Peers of 60.0%. At that probability the fair price is ~1.667. The available home price of 1.61 is below our required fair odds, producing a negative expected value (-0.034) at the quoted 1.61. The away price (2.20) implies a higher chance than we would give S. Gille/J. Vliegen, so we do not see value there either. Given the lack of additional contextual information and our conservative probability estimate, we do not recommend a bet because neither side offers positive expected value at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability (home 62.1%) vs our conservative estimate (60.0%)
• • Unknown surface/venue and no recent form or injury data increases uncertainty
• • Doubles matchups are sensitive to team chemistry and specialists; limited info pushes conservative edge estimate