Highlights

• • Market implies home ~65.4%; we estimate home ~62.0%
• • Calculated EVs at current odds are negative for both sides

Pros

• + Home is the clear favorite on the board, reflecting some advantage
• + Market is liquid enough to offer widely available prices

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific information increases estimation uncertainty
• - Bookmaker margin and current prices remove value under conservative estimates

Details

We have no external match data, so we use conservative, assumption-driven probability estimates. The market prices imply the home pair R. Koenders/Y. Veldkamp has a probability of ~65.4% (1/1.53) and the away pair ~42.0% (1/2.38) with a bookmaker margin of ~7.4%. We conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home team at 62.0% (0.62) and for the away team at 38.0% (0.38). At those estimates the expected value for the home line (odds 1.53) is 0.62*1.53 - 1 = -0.051 (negative) and for the away line (odds 2.38) is 0.38*2.38 - 1 = -0.096 (negative). Because neither side shows positive expected value at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend placing a bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available; probabilities are conservative estimates
• • Bookmaker odds imply a ~7.4% market margin favoring the book
• • Both sides produce negative EV under our estimated true probabilities