Highlights

• • Home normalized win probability ~54.8%
• • Required odds for positive EV on home are ~1.827; current is 1.70

Pros

• + Favorite status of the home pair is supported by implied probabilities
• + Margins are clear and calculation is conservative given missing data

Cons

• - Current prices include a bookmaker margin that removes potential edge
• - No external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify deviating from implied probabilities

Details

We normalized the bookie odds to remove the vig and used the resulting probability as a conservative estimate of the true win chance for the home pairing. Home implied probability (1/1.7) and away implied (1/2.06) sum to a ~7.4% margin; after normalization the home pair's win probability is ~54.8%. At the current home price (1.70) the expected return would be negative (EV ≈ -0.069). The away side likewise shows no positive edge versus our conservative probability. Given the lack of independent form, surface, injury or H2H data, we do not find value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Normalized implied probability after removing bookmaker margin gives home ~54.8%
• • Bookmaker margin (~7.4%) makes both sides priced without visible edge
• • No independent information on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we remain conservative