Rada Zolotareva vs Patricia Georgiana Goina
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away player represents strong value; supplied data shows near-parity between players while the market treats the home player as a near-lock—we estimate ~45% for the away and find large positive EV at 19.0.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~99% for home despite nearly identical player records
- • At our 45% estimate, the away line of 19.0 yields very large expected value
Pros
- + Huge margin between market price and our estimate creates substantial positive EV
- + No supporting research evidence to justify the extreme favoritism for the home player
Cons
- - Extreme market skew could reflect undisclosed information (injury/scratch) not present in the provided research
- - Such large EV suggests a potential bookmaker pricing error, which carries execution risk (voided bets, limits)
Details
We find clear value on the away moneyline (Patricia Georgiana Goina). The market price (Home 1.01 / Away 19.0) implies an almost-certain win for the home player, but the provided player data shows both competitors with indistinguishable career records (10-21) and similar surface exposure (clay, hard) with no injury or retirement information. With no evidence to justify a ~99% market probability for the home player, a much higher true chance for the away player is reasonable. Even under conservative assumptions (we estimate Patricia's win probability at 45%), the away price of 19.0 is massively favorable versus the fair odds (min required decimal ~2.222). We therefore recommend the away side because expected_value > 0 at the current price.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history
- • No injuries, retirements, or other negative signals are present in the supplied research
- • Market odds are extremely skewed (1.01 vs 19.0), suggesting a pricing error or missing-information opportunity