Rada Zolotareva vs Suana Tucakovic

Highlights

• • Both players: 10-21 record and similar recent matches in the research
• • Current away price (2.56) exceeds our fair odds threshold (2.128)

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs. market price based on parity in provided data
• + High upside: positive EV (~0.203) at widely available odds

Cons

• - Limited research depth — no H2H, surface specifics, or injury reports in the provided data
• - Market may reflect information not present in the sources; risk of information asymmetry

Details

We view the market's strong favoritism toward Rada Zolotareva (1.463) as overstated given the research: both players show nearly identical career spans, overall records (10-21), and similar recent form in the provided data, with no injury, surface advantage, or head-to-head edge shown. With symmetric evidence, a near-even true win probability is reasonable; therefore we assign Suana Tucakovic a materially higher win probability than the market-implied 39.1% (decimal 2.56). At our estimated true probability (47%), the away price of 2.56 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.203 per 1 unit staked). We favor the away side only because the bookmaker price significantly exceeds the minimum fair odds implied by our probability (min required decimal odds 2.128). We remain cautious because the dataset is thin and the market may be incorporating unreported details, so this is a medium-risk value pick.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent form for both players in the provided data
• • No evidence in the research of surface, injury, or H2H advantage for the favorite
• • Bookmaker's price for the favorite appears inflated relative to symmetric available data, creating value on the underdog