Rada Zolotareva vs Karine Sarkisova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given effectively identical profiles and no injury/H2H edge, we see this as roughly 50/50; the away price of 3.00 offers clear value against a market-implied 33%.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent form in the research do not separate the players
- • Away at 3.00 is priced well above our 50% estimated win probability
Pros
- + Current odds (3.00) are substantially higher than the break-even odds for a 50% chance (2.00)
- + Research gives no basis to justify the heavy favorite status for the home player
Cons
- - Available data is limited and identical for both players — higher uncertainty
- - No H2H, physical condition, or tournament-seeding details in the research to refine the estimate
Details
We observe that the provided profiles for Rada Zolotareva and Karine Sarkisova are effectively identical in record (both 10-21, 31 matches) and surface experience (clay and hard) with similar recent poor form; there is no injury or H2H information in the research to separate them. Given that symmetry, we treat the matchup as approximately a 50/50 contest. The market, however, prices the home player (Zolotareva) at 1.332 (implied ~75%), which we view as an overestimate of her win probability based on the available data. The away price of 3.00 (implied ~33.3%) represents value versus our 50% estimate. At p = 0.50 and decimal odds 3.00 the expected value is positive (EV = 0.50), so we recommend backing the away player at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical season records (10-21) and similar match volume in research
- • Surface experience is the same (clay and hard) — no surface edge indicated
- • Market strongly favors the home player (1.332) despite no differentiating data in the research