Highlights

• • Papoe is the clear form/frequency favorite on available records
• • Grass unknowns and very short odds eliminate value at current price

Pros

• + Strong relative record and recent wins for Papoe
• + Home/favoritism reflected in market pricing

Cons

• - Both players lack demonstrated grass-court performance, increasing variance
• - Current odds (1.13) are shorter than our break-even threshold (1.136) — no positive EV

Details

We estimate Radu Mihai Papoe is the stronger player based on career records (20-11 vs 9-19) and recent results, but both players have primarily played on clay and hard courts with no clear grass resume; that reduces our confidence in a large edge. The market price for Papoe (1.13 decimal, implied ~88.5%) is very short. Using a conservative true win probability of 0.88 for Papoe, the expected value at the current price is negative (EV = 0.88 * 1.13 - 1 ≈ -0.006), so there is no positive-value bet to recommend. To have positive EV at our probability estimate, the odds would need to be >= 1.136; current widely-available price 1.13 is below that threshold and offers no value after accounting for surface uncertainty and limited direct-comparison data.

Key factors

• • Career records favor Papoe substantially (20-11 vs 9-19)
• • Both players have limited/no grass match history — surface uncertainty lowers confidence
• • Market price for Papoe (1.13) implies ~88.5% — leaves little to no margin for value