Highlights

• • Papoe favoured heavily; implied market probability ~94.6%
• • We estimate Papoe closer to 97% probability, giving a small EV

Pros

• + Significant matchup and form advantage for Papoe
• + Current odds offer a small positive expected value under our model

Cons

• - Neither player has documented grass results in the provided research, raising uncertainty
• - Edge is small (≈2.6% ROI) and could be erased by typical qualifier volatility or an unexpected withdrawal/injury

Details

We view Radu Mihai Papoe as a heavy favorite. Papoe has a substantially better match record (20-11) versus Jan Jermar (0-13), while Jermar has not registered a win in the recorded span. Both players' documented matches are primarily on clay/hard and grass form is uncertain, which introduces some variance, but the quality gap and Jermar's complete lack of wins point to a very high true win probability for Papoe. The market price for Papoe (1.058, implied ~94.6%) appears to understate his chance relative to our estimate (97%), producing a small positive edge. We therefore recommend the home moneyline only because EV > 0 at the quoted price; the edge is modest and subject to surface uncertainty and typical qualifier variance.

Key factors

• • Clear historical performance gap: Papoe 20-11 vs Jermar 0-13
• • Jermar has no recorded wins in provided span, implying very low upset probability
• • Both lack documented grass history, adding uncertainty to any projection