Highlights

• • Clarke has grass on his surface list; Papoe does not
• • Market price underestimates Clarke relative to our model (~70% vs 64.7%)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
• + Surface and experience advantage for Clarke

Cons

• - Limited direct H2H and match-level context in the provided research
• - Some uncertainty around short-term form and fitness not disclosed

Details

We see clear value backing Jay Clarke at 1.546. The market implies Clarke has ~64.7% chance (1/1.546) but, based on the research, we estimate his true win probability nearer 70%. Clarke has much greater match volume, a stronger overall record (54-26 vs 20-11), and explicit grass experience listed in his profile while Radu Mihai Papoe's recent matches and surfaces are clay/hard with no grass background noted. That surface advantage plus Clarke's higher-level recent results (including main-tour events) justify a materially higher win probability than the market implies. Using our 70% estimate, the minimum fair decimal odds would be 1.429; the offered 1.546 produces a positive EV (≈+8.2% ROI). Because expected_value > 0 at the quoted price, we recommend the away side.

Key factors

• • Clarke has explicit grass experience while Papoe's listed surfaces lack grass
• • Clarke's larger sample size and stronger overall record (54-26) vs Papoe (20-11)
• • Papoe's recent matches are at lower-level clay events, suggesting less grass form
• • Market implies 64.7% for Clarke but we assess closer to 70%, creating value