Radu Mihai Papoe vs Jay Clarke

Highlights

• • Clarke better suited to grass with greater high-level experience
• • Current price 1.602 appears to underestimate Clarke's true win probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (≈+0.089 EV per unit)
• + Surface and experience tilt strongly toward Clarke

Cons

• - No head-to-head data in the provided research and some recent mixed results add variance
• - Margin is modest; upset risk remains (grass can be volatile and match conditions matter)

Details

We see clear value on Jay Clarke at the current price. The market price of 1.602 implies a win probability of ~62.4%, but our assessment -- based on surface fit, career experience, and recent level of competition -- places Clarke closer to a 68% win chance. Clarke has documented grass experience and a substantially larger sample at higher-level events; Papoe's match history in the research shows primarily clay/hard and lower-level events with no grass résumé, which is a meaningful disadvantage on grass. With those factors we find the market underestimating Clarke and calculate positive expected value when backing him at 1.602. We acknowledge residual uncertainty from missing head-to-head data and limited direct form context, so the edge is modest but statistically actionable.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Clarke has recorded grass play, Papoe has no grass history in the provided data
• • Experience and level: Clarke has far more matches and recent play at higher-level events (including Grand Slam), suggesting a higher true baseline
• • Market-implied vs our model: current odds (1.602) imply ~62.4% but our estimated probability is 68%, producing positive EV