Rafael Jodar vs Mitchell Krueger
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Current price on Jodar (1.455) is too short given grass questions and Krueger's surface experience; no value exists at posted odds.
Highlights
- • Jodar favored in market at 1.455 (implied ~68.7%)
- • We estimate Jodar's true win chance ~62% -> fair odds ~1.613, so market is overpriced on the favorite
Pros
- + Jodar has a markedly better win-loss ratio in the provided data
- + Market consensus favors Jodar, reflecting perceived short-term form
Cons
- - Surface mismatch: Jodar lacks documented grass results in the supplied research while Krueger has grass experience
- - Limited head-to-head and injury data increases estimation uncertainty
Details
We see Rafael Jodar priced as a clear favorite at 1.455 (implied ~68.7%). Jodar's recent overall win-rate (20-9) is strong, but his recorded matches in the research show play primarily on clay and hard courts with no grass history cited. Mitchell Krueger has more overall match experience including grass listed among his surfaces, though his career record (22-34) is weaker. Given the surface (outdoor grass) and Krueger's demonstrated grass familiarity, we conservatively estimate Jodar's true win probability at ~62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, well above the market 1.455. Therefore the current market price for Jodar offers negative expected value, so we do not recommend a side at the posted odds.
Key factors
- • Surface: match is on outdoor grass — Jodar's recent matches in research show clay/hard only, Krueger has grass experience
- • Form and sample size: Jodar has a stronger win-loss ratio (20-9) but fewer matches overall; Krueger has more matches but a weaker overall record (22-34)
- • Market-implied probability: current odds imply ~68.7% for Jodar, higher than our estimated true probability (~62%)
- • No head-to-head or injury information in the provided research to materially shift the estimate