Highlights

• • Huge discrepancy: market implies 8.3% for away vs our 70% estimate
• • EV at current odds is strongly positive (≈+7.40 per 1 unit)

Pros

• + Large theoretical margin between our probability estimate and market price
• + Simple, transparent calculation with conservative probability assumption

Cons

• - Estimate relies only on the provided Tosetto profile; no data on Crevelaro or contextual matchup info
• - High uncertainty and potential for unobserved factors (injury, surface preference, walkover) to invalidate the edge

Details

We find strong value on the away side. The market prices Rafael Tosetto at 1.03 (implied win probability ~97.1%), but Tosetto's provided profile shows a 4-11 career record and only one win in his recent ten matches, indicating markedly poor form. Given that data, the market's near-certainty on Tosetto is implausible; we estimate Enzo Crevelaro's chance to win materially higher than the market's implied ~8.3%. Using a conservative estimate that Crevelaro has a 70% true win probability, the current 12.0 decimal price offers large positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 12.0 - 1 = 7.4). Key drivers are Tosetto's weak win-loss record and recent form contrasted with the bookmaker's extreme pricing; however, uncertainty is elevated because no opponent details or injuries are provided for Crevelaro.

Key factors

• • Tosetto's poor 4-11 career record and only one win in his recent ten matches
• • Market implies ~8.3% for away (12.0) which conflicts with available form data
• • No data provided for Crevelaro increases uncertainty but market mispricing appears extreme