Highlights

• • Tosetto's career record (4-11) implies he is an underdog, not a 1.02 favorite
• • Away at 15.0 yields a very large estimated ROI if our probability estimate is reasonable

Pros

• + Huge theoretical edge vs market odds (large positive EV)
• + Simple, conservative derivation based on documented win-rate

Cons

• - No data on Vitor; our inferred away probability relies entirely on Tosetto's limited sample
• - Small sample size (15 matches) and potential unobserved factors (injury, late withdrawal, surface preference) raise risk

Details

We compare the market pricing (home 1.02, away 15.0) to the only available player data: Rafael Tosetto has a 4-11 career record (4 wins in 15 matches = 26.67% win rate). With no data on Vitor available, the most defensible baseline is to use Tosetto's documented win rate and infer the away player's win probability as 1 - 0.2667 = 0.7333. The market-implied probability for Tosetto at 1.02 (~98%) is internally inconsistent with his 4-11 record, so the quoted away price of 15.0 appears to be a large misprice. Using our estimated true probability for the away player (0.7333) versus the current decimal odds (15.0) yields a large positive expected value. We acknowledge high uncertainty from the small sample size and the complete lack of opponent-specific data, but on a pure value basis the away side offers substantial edge.

Key factors

• • Rafael Tosetto's documented career win rate is 4/15 (26.67%), implying he should not be a 98% favorite
• • Market pricing (home 1.02) is internally inconsistent with available player form data, indicating a misprice
• • Very limited data and no information on the opponent increases variance and model uncertainty