Highlights

• • Market price (1.07) requires >93.4% win probability to be +EV
• • Our assessment gives Jodar ~90% chance — too low to justify the odds

Pros

• + Rafael has greater experience and a stronger overall record on hard courts
• + Gavin's pro history is limited, reducing confidence in his ability to sustain an upset

Cons

• - The market price is extremely short; even a small estimation error eradicates value
• - Limited, noisy data on both players (recent results mixed), so any probability estimate has uncertainty

Details

The market prices Rafael Jodar at 1.07 (implied win probability ~93.5%). After assessing available data — Jodar's larger sample size (30 matches, 20-9), better overall record and experience on hard courts versus Gavin Goode's very limited pro experience (5 matches, 2-2) — we estimate Jodar's true win probability at 90.0%. That is materially below the market-implied 93.5%, so the current price does not offer positive expected value. To beat the 1.07 price Jodar would need an implied probability >= ~93.46%, which we cannot justify given Goode's unknown ceiling but non-zero upset potential and the limited, noisy data set.

Key factors

• • Market implies Rafael win probability ~93.5% (1.07), which is exceptionally high
• • Rafael Jodar: substantially larger match sample (30 matches) and 20-9 record, comfortable on hard courts
• • Gavin Goode: tiny pro sample (5 matches), some wins at this event but overall uncertain — creates non-negligible upset risk