Rafael Jodar vs Trevor Svajda
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value — market price for Jodar (1.541) is shorter than our conservative true estimate; given both players' similar records and lack of grass data, we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Jodar is ~64.9% (1.541).
- • We assess Jodar at 60% true probability due to uncertain grass form, so current odds offer negative EV.
Pros
- + Jodar has a strong overall Challenger record (20-9) which supports favoritism.
- + Market is clearly leaning to Jodar, showing public/bookmaker confidence.
Cons
- - Neither player shows grass-court form in the provided research — a key unknown.
- - Projected edge is small and market odds are shorter than our required fair odds, producing negative EV.
Details
We compare the market price (Rafael Jodar 1.541 implied ~64.9%) to our assessment of the true win chance. Both players have very similar recent records on the ATP Challenger circuit (Jodar 20-9, Svajda 24-11) and most recorded matches in the research were on hard courts; neither profile shows meaningful grass experience. That makes surface transferability uncertain and reduces our confidence in an edge. Given the uncertainty, we estimate Jodar's true win probability at 60.0%. At that probability the fair odds would be ~1.667, which is longer than the available 1.541, producing a negative expected value on Jodar at current prices. Because no side shows positive EV at the provided odds, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both players' recent match data are primarily on hard courts; no grass form advantage identified
- • Season records are similar (Jodar 20-9, Svajda 24-11), indicating parity rather than a clear favorite
- • Market implies ~64.9% for Jodar; our conservative true probability is 60% due to surface uncertainty and limited direct edge