Highlights

• • Market price (1.03) implies ~97% win probability
• • Our estimated true probability for Daria is ~82%, creating negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Daria is experienced with a long professional record
• + Market consensus clearly favors her, indicating perceived quality

Cons

• - Career win-rate (~52%) and recent recorded losses do not justify near-certainty
• - No data on Raja prevents confidence that Daria should be priced at 1.03

Details

We see the market pricing Daria Yesypchuk at 1.03 (implied ~97.1%) which implies near-certainty. Our read of the provided profile shows a long career but only a ~52% career win rate (559-507) and recent documented losses, which do not support a ~97% true win probability. With no information about Raja Sarvagnya Kilaru to suggest she is a non-competitive opponent, we conservatively estimate Daria's true win probability materially below the market-implied price. At our estimated probability the minimum fair price would be ~1.22; the offered 1.03 yields a negative EV, so we do not find value and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~97% for Daria (1.03) which is extreme
• • Daria's career win-rate (~52%) and recent losses weaken a near-certain probability
• • No information on home player (Raja) limits confidence that Daria is virtually unbeatable