Ralitsa Alexandrova vs Aleksandra Mateva

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 63.7% (1.57) vs our estimate 40%
• • Required odds for value on home are ~2.50; current quotes are far shorter

Pros

• + Market is offering a clear favorite which sometimes reflects actual class
• + We have recent match data for the home player (albeit negative) to base an estimate on

Cons

• - Home player has a poor win-loss record and recent losses at Challenger level
• - No data on the opponent prevents identifying a clear advantage or exploitable mismatch

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.57 implied ~63.7%) to our assessment of the true win probability for Ralitsa Alexandrova. The only available player data shows a career record of 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with poor recent results in Challenger-level events; there is no information on Aleksandra Mateva to indicate she is a clearly inferior opponent. Given Alexandrova's weak overall record and recent form, we estimate her true win probability at about 40%. At the current home price (1.57) that produces a negative expected value (0.40 * 1.57 - 1 = -0.372), so the favorite is over-priced by the market relative to our view. To justify a bet on Alexandrova we would need decimal odds ≈2.50 or higher; the current market price does not offer value. We therefore recommend no side.

Key factors

• • Career record is poor (10-21) indicating ~32% historical win rate
• • Recent Challenger-level losses suggest form is below typical-market-favorite level
• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied ~63.7%) despite limited supporting data on opponent
• • No available information on opponent to justify the market gap