Highlights

• • Home fair price (based on our conservative estimate) = 2.50; market offers 2.41
• • Small negative ROI at current prices (-3.6% on a 1-unit stake using our estimate)

Pros

• + Conservative probability reduces the chance of overrating an underdog
• + Clear numeric thresholds provided for when value would appear (min required odds)

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries)
• - If our conservative probability underestimates the home player, small positive value could be missed

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or head-to-head data and must therefore take a conservative stance. The market currently prices the away player (S. Da Cruz Mendonca) as a clear favorite at 1.524 (implied ~65.6%). Taking a cautious true probability for the home player (R. Pereira) of 40% yields a minimum fair price of 2.50; the available home moneyline of 2.41 is below that threshold, producing a small negative expected value. Given the data scarcity and the bookmaker margin, there is insufficient evidence of value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H — forces conservative estimates
• • Away is short-priced favorite (1.524); implied probability likely already includes market confidence and margin
• • Home would need 2.50+ to be profitable given our 40% true-win estimate; current 2.41 is below that