Highlights

• • Market implies ~9.1% for Rebeca (1/11) despite near-identical records — large mismatch
• • Estimated true probability of 45% implies min fair odds ~2.222; current 11.0 is far above that

Pros

• + Huge margin between fair odds and market odds — strong theoretical ROI
• + Both players' profiles and recent results in the research point to a competitive match-up, not a 99% favorite

Cons

• - Market may be reflecting non-public information (injury, withdrawal risk) not present in the provided research
• - This looks like an outlier/low-liquidity quote — execution risk (odds correction or bet cancellation) is high

Details

The market price (Rebeca Pereira 11.0) appears to be a clear outlier versus the available player data. Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research (both 10-21, similar surfaces), so a close contest should be expected — not a 99% win probability for the away player. We estimate Rebeca's true win probability materially higher than the implied 9.1% at 11.0; using a conservative 45% estimate yields strong positive expected value. This price discrepancy likely reflects a pricing error or a liquidity anomaly rather than a true skill gap, creating profitable value on the home underdog at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical career records and surface experience in the provided data (10-21), implying a close match-up
• • Current market price for the away player (1.01) implies an implausible ~99% win probability given the available form data
• • Large discrepancy between implied and estimated true probability suggests a pricing error or market anomaly, creating value on the underdog