Rebecca Marino vs Tatjana Maria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the market favorite (Tatjana Maria) is priced too short relative to our estimated probability (~62%), producing negative EV at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability (1.53) ~65.4% vs our estimate 62%
- • Expected value on favorite at current odds: ~-5.1% (negative)
Pros
- + Clear, conservative read: avoid wagering when market price is shorter than our probability
- + Research shows no clear advantage for the underdog to create value
Cons
- - Data provided is limited and symmetric for both players, increasing uncertainty in probability estimates
- - Tennis matches can be volatile; small edges can flip quickly, so absence of value now doesn't preclude future opportunities
Details
We estimate Tatjana Maria (away) is the market favorite and has slightly better perceived win expectancy, but given the available data both players show nearly identical recent records (10-21) and no clear surface or injury edge is provided. The book market price of 1.53 implies ~65.4% win probability; our model-based read of the situation assigns Tatjana ~62% true win probability (Rebecca Marino ~38%), so the current price on Tatjana offers negative expected value. Because the margin between market implied probability and our estimated probability is small and in favor of the book, there is no value on either side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical aggregate recent records in the provided data (10-21), suggesting form is similarly weak
- • Market strongly favors Tatjana (1.53) which implies ~65% win chance; our assessment is lower (~62%) so the price is too short to offer value
- • No differentiating injury, head-to-head, or surface advantage is present in the supplied research to justify discounting the market further