Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Gina Feistel

Highlights

• • Market implies away ~70.8% while home is only ~36.6%
• • Based on parity in profiles, a ~48% true win chance for home yields positive EV at 2.73

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs market pricing — current odds exceed break-even (2.083)
• + No evidence in research to justify large favorite status

Cons

• - Limited and noisy player data; small-sample records increase uncertainty
• - Profiles suggest generally poor recent results for both, adding variance risk

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career profiles (10-21 records, similar surfaces) and no injury or matchup information to justify a large gap. The market prices Gina Feistel as a ~70.8% implied favorite (1/1.412 = 0.708) while Rebecca Munk Mortensen is priced at ~36.6% (1/2.73 = 0.366). Given the parity in the published records and recent results, we estimate the true probability for the home player is substantially higher than the market-implied 36.6% — we set it at 48%. At that probability the home price of 2.73 offers positive value (EV = 0.48 * 2.73 - 1 = +0.310), so we recommend the home side because the market appears to overstate the away player without supporting evidence in the provided research. We note uncertainty due to limited distinguishing data and small sample sizes in the profiles, so this is a targeted value play based on overreaction in the market.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • No injuries, head-to-head, or clear form advantage in the provided research
• • Market heavily favors away (implied ~70.8%) which seems unsupported by the profiles