Rebecca Marino vs Tatjana Maria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a small-value back on Rebecca Marino at 2.12 because our conservative 49% win estimate exceeds the market-implied probability, producing a modest positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Marino ~47.2% but we estimate ~49.0%
- • Positive but small EV (~3.9% ROI) at the quoted Marino price
Pros
- + Price (2.12) exceeds the min-required odds (2.041) for our estimated probability
- + Both players' supplied records and recent results do not justify a strong market lean to Maria
Cons
- - Estimated edge is small and sensitive to limited, noisy data
- - Research shows poor recent form for both players, raising variance and match unpredictability
Details
We find value on the home side (Rebecca Marino). The market prices Tatjana Maria at 1.787 (implied win probability ~55.9%) and Marino at 2.12 (implied ~47.2%). The available research shows both players with identical aggregate records (10-21 across 31 matches) and similar recent results and surface exposure (Hard and Clay), so there is no clear performance advantage for Maria that justifies the market gap. Conservatively estimating Marino's true win probability at 49.0% (slightly above the market-implied 47.2%) yields a small positive edge at the current price of 2.12. Given limited and mixed recent form for both players, the edge is modest and sensitive to variance, but the quote for Marino appears to contain value versus our estimated probability.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical aggregate records in the supplied research (10-21), implying no clear performance gap
- • Both have recent poor form in the provided match snippets, increasing outcome variance
- • Market prices favor Maria (1.787) but the implied gap vs Marino (2.12) is not supported by the available data