Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Emma Slavikova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market massively overprices the home player given near-identical records and lack of distinguishing factors; the away moneyline at 5.00 represents strong value based on a conservative 40% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 87% appears unsupported by the provided data
- • Away at 5.00 requires only >20% true probability to be +EV; we estimate 40%
Pros
- + Large margin between market-implied probability and our conservative true probability
- + Current price (5.00) generates substantial positive EV even with cautious assumptions
Cons
- - Limited dataset and lack of H2H or ranking details increases uncertainty
- - Bookmakers may have information not present in the supplied research; risk of market efficiency
Details
We see the market prices Rebecca Munk Mortensen at 1.15 (implied ~87.0%) and Emma Slavikova at 5.00 (implied 20.0%). The player profiles and recent results provided show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces, with no injury or H2H information to justify such a large favorite. Given parity in the available data and the minimal inherent home advantage in individual tennis matches, the market's ~87% projection for the home player is implausibly high. Conservatively we estimate Emma Slavikova's true win probability at 40.0% (0.40). Using the current quoted away price (decimal 5.00) gives EV = 0.40 * 5.00 - 1 = 1.00 (100% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because EV>0 at the offered price, we recommend taking the away moneyline.
Key factors
- • Market implies an ~87% chance for home despite near-identical player profiles and records
- • Both players have similar recent form and surface history; no injury or H2H edge provided
- • A reasonable conservative true probability for the away player (40%) produces strong positive EV at 5.00