Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Lucie Petruzelova

Highlights

• • Players' profiles and recent results in the research are effectively symmetric.
• • Away at 3.30 implies ~30% win chance but a reasonable true chance is ~50%, producing ~0.65 EV.

Pros

• + Large margin between implied probability (30.3%) and our estimated probability (50%).
• + No injuries, surface disadvantage, or form advantage present in the provided research to justify the heavy favourite.

Cons

• - Overall sample sizes and data in the research are limited; estimates contain uncertainty.
• - Market may have information not included in the provided research (scheduling, local conditions, etc.) that could justify price.

Details

We find clear value on the away side. The available research shows both players have effectively identical career spans, match totals (31) and identical win-loss (10-21) and similar surface experience; recent form presented does not favor the home player. With no H2H, injury, or surface edge in the provided data, a neutral prior around 50% for each player is appropriate. Market prices heavily favour the home player at 1.319 (implied 75.8%) while the away is priced at 3.30 (implied 30.3%). That pricing is inconsistent with the information at hand and creates value on the away side. Using an estimated true probability of 0.50 for the away player, the minimum fair decimal price is 2.000 and the current 3.30 quote produces expected value: EV = 0.50 * 3.30 - 1 = +0.65 (65% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given the lack of evidence supporting the heavy favoritism toward the home player, we recommend taking the away at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical records and surfaces in the provided data (no clear edge).
• • Market heavily favours the home player despite no supporting information in the research.
• • Current away price (3.30) implies only ~30% chance; a neutral estimate (~50%) makes this a high-value price.