Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Wiktoria Chmielewska

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability (~6.7%) is inconsistent with available player form data
• • Conservative estimated away win probability 65% yields very large positive EV at 15.0

Pros

• + Huge theoretical ROI at the displayed price (EV ≈ 8.75 per unit)
• + Backed by concrete negative indicators for the favorite (career record and recent losses)

Cons

• - Opponent-specific data is missing — our probability relies on inference from the favorite's form
• - Odds may reflect factors not in provided research (late withdrawals, injury, administrative error), raising execution risk

Details

We find a large value opportunity on the away player because the market price (away 15.0) implies a ~6.7% win probability, which is implausibly low given the home player's documented weak form. Rebecca Munk Mortensen's career record (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts indicate she is not a near-certain winner; the available data supports an estimated true probability that the home player loses. With limited information on the opponent but clear negative signals for the favorite (poor win rate, recent straight losses), we conservatively estimate the away player has ~65% chance to win. At decimal 15.0 that produces a very large positive expected value. We note elevated model uncertainty due to lack of opponent-specific data and the possibility the quoted market is erroneous, so the signal carries high risk despite strong nominal EV.

Key factors

• • Home player's career win rate 10/31 (~32%) indicates weak baseline
• • Recent form: consecutive losses on hard courts leading into this match
• • Market appears heavily skewed to home (1.01) while evidence does not support near-certainty
• • Lack of opponent data increases uncertainty but does not justify 15.0 underdog price