Highlights

• • Market implies ~72% for Clark (1.382) but we estimate ~60%
• • Break-even price for Clark would be about 1.667; current odds are below that

Pros

• + Clark has experience on both hard and clay which supports a baseline probability above 50%
• + We used a conservative true-probability to avoid overstating value

Cons

• - Recent results for Clark are mixed/poor, reducing confidence
• - No information on Remy Dugardin prevents a more precise matchup assessment

Details

We only have detailed data for Ezekiel Clark showing a career record near 50% (164-160) and recent losses on hard courts; Remy Dugardin has no research provided. The market makes Clark a heavy favorite at 1.382 (implied probability ~72.3%), which is inconsistent with Clark's long-term win rate and mixed recent form. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Clark of 60% (weighing career win-rate and surface versatility but accounting for recent poor results and uncertainty about the opponent), the fair decimal price would be ~1.667. At the current market price of 1.382 the expected return is negative, so there is no value and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Ezekiel Clark career record 164-160 (~50% win rate)
• • Recent form shows losses on hard courts (mixed recent performance)
• • Market price (1.382) implies ~72% win chance, far above our estimated 60%
• • No usable data provided for Remy Dugardin increases matchup uncertainty