Highlights

• • Implied probability for Remy (12.0) = 8.33%, our estimate = 3.0%
• • EV on Remy at current odds = -0.64 (negative), so we do not recommend a bet

Pros

• + If Remy were undervalued, the payout at 12.0 would be large
• + Market clearly expects a near-certain win for the favorite, so any verifiable contrary information could create value

Cons

• - Insufficient public information to justify a higher win-probability for the underdog
• - Current odds for the underdog are far below the break-even threshold for our probability estimate

Details

The market prices Lani Brotman as an overwhelming favorite (1.03 decimal, implied win probability ~97.1%) and Remy Nguyen as a longshot at 12.0 (implied ~8.33%). With no external data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we adopt a conservative estimate for the underdog (Remy Nguyen) win probability of 3.0%. At that estimate the fair EV on Remy is negative: EV = 0.03 * 12.0 - 1 = -0.64 (loss of 0.64 units per 1-unit stake). To obtain positive EV on Remy at our probability estimate we would need minimum decimal odds of 33.333. Because the current quote (12.0) is well below required odds and our estimated probability is far beneath the implied probability of the market for the favorite, there is no value on either side given available prices and the lack of corroborating information. We therefore recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities: home 8.33%, away 97.09%
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Required odds for positive EV on the underdog far exceed current market price