Renata Jamrichova vs Hanne Vandewinkel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Renata Jamrichova at 2.17 based on a 48% estimated win probability versus the market-implied ~46.1%, yielding an EV of ~0.042 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Jamrichova (46.1%) appears a touch low given similar profiles
- • Fair odds ~2.083 vs available 2.17 gives a small positive expected value
Pros
- + Decimal price (2.17) exceeds our fair-odds threshold (2.083), producing positive EV
- + Both players show comparable weaknesses, reducing a clear reason for market favoritism
Cons
- - Both players have poor recent records and multiple recent losses, increasing upset variance
- - Edge is small and sensitive to modest changes in our probability estimate
Details
We see near-identical career records and recent form between Renata Jamrichova and Hanne Vandewinkel, with both players 10-21/10-22 and recent losses on hard courts. The market prices Vandewinkel as the favorite at 1.694 (implied ~59.0%) while Jamrichova is available at 2.17 (implied ~46.1%). Given the lack of a clear on-paper edge for Vandewinkel (similar surfaces played, similar recent match stats) we estimate Jamrichova's true win probability is modestly higher than the market-implied 46.1% — about 48.0%. At that probability Jamrichova's fair odds are ~2.083, so the available 2.17 offers a small but positive edge. There is uncertainty due to both players' poor recent results and no H2H or injury information, so the edge is modest and relies on the market overpricing of Vandewinkel relative to observable form.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical career records and recent form between the two players
- • Market strongly favors the away player (Vandewinkel) without clear on-paper justification
- • No decisive surface or head-to-head edge in the provided data; value is based on small probability edge