Highlights

• • Market overprices the favorite based on supplied data
• • Underdog odds (4.00) imply a required win probability of 25%, well below our 40% estimate

Pros

• + Clear quantitative value at current away price (EV +0.60)
• + No injury or surface information in the research to justify the short favorite price

Cons

• - Research is limited and largely duplicated between players, increasing model uncertainty
• - If there is unprovided contextual info (seed, ranking, home crowd) market may be correct

Details

We see virtually no objective differentiation in the supplied profiles: both players show identical career spans and a 10-21 record with mixed results on clay and hard. Recent form snippets provided are the same for each player and do not indicate injuries or a clear form advantage. The market price (Renata Jamrichova 1.24 implied ≈80.6%) requires an implausibly high true-win probability for the favorite based on the available data. Starting from a baseline ~50/50 given identical records and adjusting modestly for presumed home/seed advantages that are not evidenced in the research, we estimate Pia Lovric's true win probability at 40%. At the listed away moneyline of 4.00 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.40*4.00 - 1 = +0.60), so the away line represents value against the current market price. We use the quoted away odds (4.00) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical 10-21 records and similar surface experience in provided data
• • No injury reports or clear recent-form advantage present in supplied research
• • Market implies ~80.6% for the favorite (1.24) which is unsupported by the available evidence