Renata Zarazua vs Sarah Rakotomanga
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors Zarazua at 1.33, but her recent record and lack of supporting matchup data make that price unjustified; no value, so we pass.
Highlights
- • Zarazua's provided win rate over the sample is low (≈32%).
- • Implied market probability (~75%) is much higher than our 40% estimate.
Pros
- + Zarazua is the recognizable/favored name in the listing (market support).
- + Has match experience across clay and hard per the profile.
Cons
- - Recent form in the provided results is poor with multiple losses.
- - Bookmaker odds are too short — would require >2.50 to represent value per our estimate.
- - No information on opponent or surface to justify the heavy favorite pricing.
Details
We compare the bookmaker moneyline (Renata Zarazua 1.33 -> implied ~75%) to a realistic estimate based only on the provided profile. Zarazua's documented sample (10 wins in 31 matches, 32% raw win rate) and the listed recent results show multiple recent losses and poor form. With no information about Sarah Rakotomanga or a favorable surface/ matchup in the research, we conservatively estimate Zarazua's true win probability at 40%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 2.50; the market price 1.33 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.40*1.33 - 1 = -0.468). Given the sizable gap between the implied bookmaker probability (~75%) and our estimate (40%), there is no value on Zarazua at the current prices. The lack of opponent data and unclear surface increases uncertainty, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Career record in provided period: 10-21 (≈32% win rate)
- • Recent match list shows multiple losses and generally poor form
- • Bookmaker price (1.33) implies ~75% win chance, far above our estimate
- • No opponent (Rakotomanga) data in the research to justify a heavy favourite price
- • Surface/venue not specified in sources, adding uncertainty to any projection