Renata Zarazua vs Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no betting value on Zarazua at 1.266 given her recent form and the lack of opponent data; odds would need to be ≥1.538 for value using our 65% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market price implies ~79% for Zarazua; our estimate is 65%
- • Current price produces a negative EV (-0.177 per unit)
Pros
- + Zarazua is the market favourite, indicating perceived clear superiority
- + Short price reduces variance if outcome were sure
Cons
- - Provided recent results show more losses than wins (10-21), undermining the heavy favourite markup
- - No information on the opponent to justify the market gap; increases model uncertainty
Details
The market prices Renata Zarazua as a heavy favourite at 1.266 (implied ~79.0%). Our read of the available player data shows Zarazua has a weak recent record (10-21 overall in the provided span) and multiple recent losses in the last matches listed, which argues against such a high implied chance. We estimate Zarazua's true match-win probability at 65.0% (0.65). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.538; the current price of 1.266 yields a negative expected return (EV = 0.65*1.266 - 1 = -0.177). There is insufficient opponent-specific data to justify the bookmaker's heavy market tilt, so we do not see value at current prices. If the market drifts to ~1.538 or higher for Zarazua, value would exist using our probability model.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for Zarazua is very high (~79%) based on 1.266
- • Provided player form is poor (10-21 record in span and recent losses), which lowers our probability estimate
- • No opponent data provided, increasing uncertainty and arguing against backing a short-priced favourite without visible value