Renta Tokuda vs Charles Broom
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Renta Tokuda at 2.46 — our conservative true-win estimate of 56% gives ~37.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake, indicating clear value versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market prices Broom as heavy favorite (1.50) despite Tokuda's stronger career win rate on hard
- • Required fair odds for Tokuda at our estimate: ~1.786; market is offering 2.46
Pros
- + Significant positive EV at current quoted odds
- + Tokuda's stronger historical performance on hard-court events
Cons
- - Limited granular match-level context and unknown match status increases uncertainty
- - Broom is in-form locally (recent Sapporo wins), which could narrow the gap on the day
Details
We see meaningful value on the home side (Renta Tokuda). The market prices Charles Broom at ~1.50 (implied ~66.7%), which overstates his edge given the available profiles: Tokuda has a stronger overall win rate (46-17, ~73%) and more consistent results on hard courts, while Broom's recent wins in Sapporo came at M25 level (lower tier), suggesting those wins may not indicate a large step up versus Tokuda. Tokuda has been active at higher-level challengers and has a better career win percentage, so a conservative true win probability for Tokuda is 56%. At the quoted home decimal 2.46 this yields EV = 0.56*2.46 - 1 = +0.378 per unit staked. The min fair price for that 56% estimate is 1.786; the market 2.46 is substantially above that, creating positive expected value. We note variance from limited match-level detail and the unknown status, so we remain conservative in our probability assignment.
Key factors
- • Tokuda's superior overall win-loss record and strong performance on hard courts
- • Broom's recent wins were at M25 Sapporo (lower tier) versus Tokuda's challenger-level activity
- • Market-implied probability (Broom ~66.7%) appears overstated versus players' career win rates