Renta Tokuda vs Masamichi Imamura

Highlights

• • Tokuda's historical win rate and hard-court experience favor him
• • Current price (1.358) implies less probability than our estimate, yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge in win-loss records and surface familiarity
• + Positive expected value at available market price

Cons

• - Short-term variance in tennis can produce upsets even when favorites are strong
• - Limited head-to-head or recent-match detail in the provided data to further refine probability

Details

We estimate Renta Tokuda is the clear favorite based on the provided career records and surface history: Tokuda is 46-17 (≈73% win rate) with extensive hard-court experience, while Masamichi Imamura is 26-29 (≈47% win rate) with mixed results. Current market odds give Tokuda decimal 1.358 (implied probability ≈73.6%). We conservatively estimate Tokuda's true win probability at 78.0% given superior form and consistency on hard courts; that implies value vs. the market. Using our probability (0.78) and the quoted price (1.358) EV = 0.78 * 1.358 - 1 ≈ +0.059 (≈5.9% ROI). The required fair decimal to break even at our probability is 1.282, which is meaningfully below the available 1.358, so the current market offers positive expected value on the home side. We see limited injury or surface concerns in the supplied data and no contradictory H2H info, so the edge is driven by win-rate and hard-court form.

Key factors

• • Tokuda's much stronger overall win-loss record (46-17) versus Imamura (26-29)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity; Tokuda shows better recent form and consistency
• • Market implied probability (≈73.6%) is below our estimated true probability (78%), creating value