Highlights

• • Tokuda has superior form and experience on hard courts
• • Current odds (1.226) imply ~81.5% while we estimate ~84% probability

Pros

• + Clear form and level advantage for Tokuda (challenger-level qualifier wins)
• + Larger, more reliable sample of matches for Tokuda vs limited sample for Tanuma

Cons

• - Edge is modest (EV ≈ +3%), so variance can still produce losing outcomes
• - Single-match tennis always has upset potential, especially if pressure or conditions shift

Details

We view Renta Tokuda as a clear favorite based on the provided profiles: Tokuda has a large sample (63 matches) with a 46-16 record and strong recent results on hard courts (including qualifier wins at challenger level), while Ryota Tanuma has only 11 matches and a 4-7 record with recent losses at M15 events. The market price (home 1.226, implied 81.5%) appears slightly soft relative to our assessment of Tokuda's true chance given form, experience, and surface fit. We estimate Tokuda's win probability at 84.0%, which yields a positive EV at the current decimal price (EV = 0.84 * 1.226 - 1 = +0.0298). Key caveats are the usual upset risk in single-match tennis and Tanuma's limited sample size making his true level harder to judge, but the differential in recent results and level gives Tokuda a small but real edge versus the market price.

Key factors

• • Tokuda's much larger sample size (63 matches) and strong 46-16 record
• • Tokuda's recent wins at higher-level events on hard courts vs Tanuma's recent losses at M15 level
• • Market-implied probability (81.5%) is slightly lower than our 84% estimate, producing a small positive edge