Rex Regum Qeon vs Fnatic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Rex Regum Qeon at 2.60 (estimated win probability 39%), yielding about a 1.4% expected ROI; the edge is slim and sensitive to assumptions.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (market) ~38.5%; our estimate 39% — slight value
- • Positive but small EV at current home price (2.60)
Pros
- + Market slightly underprices a plausible RRQ upset, creating a small edge
- + Clear numeric criteria: min required odds 2.564 vs available 2.60
Cons
- - Edge is very small (≈1.4% ROI) and easily wiped out by variance
- - No independent match-specific sources (rosters, map form, injuries) — higher uncertainty
Details
We conservatively estimate Rex Regum Qeon (home) has a ~39% chance to win based on general form differentials, event pressure, and typical strength of Fnatic as favorites — but without additional external data we remain cautious. The market decimal odds (home 2.60) imply ~38.46% and the away price (1.508) implies ~66.3%; our estimated true probability (39%) is slightly higher than the market-implied home probability, producing a small positive edge. Using the home price of 2.60, EV = 0.39 * 2.60 - 1 = +0.014 (about 1.4% ROI). This is a narrow value opportunity driven by the underdog pricing; it is sensitive to our probability estimate and the lack of deeper match-specific intel increases variance.
Key factors
- • Fnatic is the market favorite, but short prices may slightly undervalue an upset by RRQ
- • Limited external data increases model uncertainty; we apply conservative probabilities
- • Small bookmaker margin and decimal pricing (2.60) create a narrow positive edge for the underdog