Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Antoni (73.5%) looks overstated relative to his recorded form
• • At our 45% estimate for Baudel, current 2.95 converts to +0.3275 EV per unit

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.95) per our probability estimate
• + Antoni's recent clay losses provide a concrete reason to distrust heavy favoritism

Cons

• - Limited data: Antoni's sample is very small and there is no provided data on Baudel, increasing model uncertainty
• - If Baudel is significantly weaker than assumed, the EV reverses; this is a medium-risk inference

Details

The market prices Richard Antoni at 1.36 (implied 73.5%) despite the research showing Antoni has a very limited 2025 sample (4 matches) and a poor 1-3 record with recent losses on clay. There is no provided performance data for Andrea Baudel in the research, which increases uncertainty and makes the market's large favoritism toward Antoni suspect. Given Antoni's demonstrable poor form on clay and the absence of contra-evidence about Baudel, we estimate Baudel's chance materially above the market-implied 33.9% (2.95 decimal). Using a conservative estimated win probability of 45% for Baudel, the current 2.95 price yields positive value (EV = 0.45*2.95 - 1 = +0.3275). We therefore recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at the available price; betting Antoni at 1.36 offers negative EV versus our model.

Key factors

• • Antoni's poor recent form (1-3 overall, recent losses on clay)
• • Market implies 73.5% for Antoni which conflicts with Antoni's match record
• • No performance data for Andrea Baudel in provided research increases likelihood market undervalues away