Highlights

• • Market implies ~63.3% for Gavrielides; our estimate ~66%
• • EV at current price is small but positive (~4.3% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear experience and larger match sample favor Gavrielides
• + Current price (1.58) offers a small, demonstrable positive expected value

Cons

• - Edge is small — outcome variance and limited recent data on Gavrielides create risk
• - Antoni's recent match activity (Aug 2025) could indicate match sharpness despite results

Details

We view Liam Gavrielides as the value side. The market prices him at 1.58 (implied ~63.3%), but after weighing form, experience and surface history we estimate his true win probability at ~66.0%. Richard Antoni is extremely limited at tour level (4 career matches, 1-3) and has recent clay losses, whereas Gavrielides has a much larger match sample (126 matches, 59-67) and experience on clay. There are uncertainties (Liam's most recent listed matches are from 2024, suggesting possible rust), but the experiential and surface advantage still points to a slight edge. Using our probability (0.66) against the quoted away price (1.58) yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.66*1.58 - 1 ≈ 0.043 (4.3% ROI). Given the small margin, this is a modest-value play rather than a large overlay.

Key factors

• • Gavrielides has substantially more professional match experience (126 matches) than Antoni (4 matches)
• • Antoni has poor recent results on clay (multiple recent losses) and a very small sample size
• • Market-implied probability (~63.3%) is slightly lower than our estimate (66%), creating a small edge